(What CREA & TRREB Data Reveal for GTA Buyers)
Introduction
The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) housing market in 2025 offers a rare window for buyers, driven by the Bank of Canada’s September 17, 2025, rate cut to 2.5%—the first since March—and a buyer-friendly market with falling prices and record inventory. Despite persistent affordability challenges, the latest Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) and Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) data reveal opportunities for strategic buyers. Here’s what you need to know to seize this moment.
What CREA & TRREB Are Saying
National Average Price (CREA): $672,784 in July 2025 (+0.6% YoY, -2.7% MoM)
National HPI Benchmark: $693,300 (-3.4% YoY)
GTA Average Sold Price (TRREB): $1,022,143 in August 2025 (-5.2% YoY)
GTA MLS® HPI Benchmark: $969,700 (-5.2% YoY)
TRREB reports 5,211 GTA home sales in August 2025 (+2.3% YoY), but demand remains historically low. New listings surged 9.4% to 14,038, with a record 27,495 active listings, creating a balanced market with 4.7 months of inventory.
Detailed Breakdown by Property Type
Price declines across property types signal affordability gains:
Detached: $1,312,240 (-7.2% YoY)
Semi-Detached: $980,102 (-4.5% YoY)
Freehold Townhouse: $946,395 (-4.5% YoY)
Condo Apartment: $642,195 (-4.8% YoY)
Condos, with 9,105 active listings and 40 days on the market, offer the best entry point for first-time buyers.
Interest Rates & Stress Test: A Game-Changer
The Bank of Canada’s 25-basis-point cut to 2.5% on September 17, 2025, lowers borrowing costs, with variable mortgage rates dropping to ~3.7% and 5-year fixed insured rates at ~3.89%. This eases payments—for example, a $642,195 condo now costs ~$200 less monthly on a variable-rate mortgage. However, the stress test, requiring qualification at ~5.89%, still challenges buyers, though it’s less punitive with rates falling.
Affordability Today vs. Recent Past
GTA benchmark prices are 24% below their February 2022 peak ($969,700), a significant reset. The rate cut boosts purchasing power, but high carrying costs—mortgage payments, taxes, insurance, and maintenance—demand robust down payments. With unemployment at 7.1% in August 2025, economic uncertainty tempers optimism, yet lower rates and prices create a buyer’s market not seen since 2021.
Tips for Buyers in This Market
First-Time Buyers: Snap up condos ($642,195 avg.) or townhouses ($946,395 avg.) in areas like Mississauga or Toronto’s core for affordability and lifestyle.
Move-Up Buyers: Detached homes, down 7.2% to $1,312,240, offer value but require larger budgets.
Negotiate Smart: Record inventory (27,495 listings) gives leverage to secure deals, especially on condos with high supply.
Monitor Rates: Further cuts are possible in October or December 2025, but rising bond yields could push fixed rates up. Act before potential market shifts.
Conclusion: Seize the Opportunity
The GTA is firmly a buyer’s market in 2025, with prices down, inventory at record highs, and the Bank of Canada’s rate cut to 2.5% easing affordability. However, the stress test and economic headwinds like unemployment (7.1%) and slowing GDP (-0.4% in Q2) require caution.Key Factors to Watch:
Further Bank of Canada rate moves
Bond yield trends affecting fixed rates
Inventory growth and listing trends
Job market recovery to boost confidence
With more choice and leverage than in years, now is the time to act. Contact me for a free consultation to navigate this market and secure your dream GTA home at the right price.
Posted September 18, 2025 | By Olivia Williams, GTA Realtor
Email: realtoroliviawilliams@gmail.com | Phone: 416-302-6360 | Website: https://oliviawilliamsrealty.com/